Asteroid 2024 YR4's Impact Risk for 2032 Drops Significantly, Scientists Continue Monitoring

New observations have reduced the asteroid's collision probability to 0.16%, but astronomers emphasize ongoing tracking is necessary.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring between 130 and 300 feet wide, was first detected in December 2024 and could potentially impact Earth on December 22, 2032.
Initial estimates placed its impact probability as high as 3.1%, but recent data from NASA and the European Space Agency have lowered it to 0.16%.
The asteroid's fluctuating risk levels are due to improved orbital calculations based on new observations, which have narrowed its potential trajectory.
If the asteroid were to strike Earth, its impact could cause localized destruction similar to the 1908 Tunguska event, which flattened over 800 square miles of Siberian forest.
Astronomers will continue tracking the asteroid until April 2025, after which observations will pause until 2028, leaving current estimates as the standing risk assessment for three years.