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Election Forecasting

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Two Democrats Vie to Flip California’s Only Toss-Up House Seat

The June top-two primary will determine who faces long-time Republican Rep. David Valadao in a newly redrawn Central Valley district.

Karl Rove Warns Trump’s Messaging Is Increasing Risk of a Democratic House Takeover

Nate Silver Says Disney Deleted FiveThirtyEight’s Archive After Rejecting His Bid

Iowa Governor’s Race Becomes a Tossup as GOP Primary Splinters

Carville Warns of a 'Crazier' Trump as Support Slips, Flags Foreign-Policy Risk

Rubio's 2028 Prospects Rise on the Right

León Mayor Alejandra Gutiérrez Quits PAN After Two Decades

First Attack Ad Jolts Georgia’s GOP Senate Primary as Ossoff Leads

Trump’s Approval Sags Nationally, With Erosion Reaching Into GOP Terrain

New Polls Put Platner Ahead of Collins as He Dominates Maine Democratic Primary

Van Drew’s Once-Safe NJ Seat Looks Competitive as GOP Allies Mount Defense

Special Election Gains and Ratings Shifts Boost Democrats’ House Prospects as Senate Map Stays Tough

Senate GOP Super PAC Reserves $342 Million Across Eight States

CIS Poll in Andalusia Puts Moreno on Top as PP Opens 10-Point Lead Over PSOE

Hilton Tops New Polls as California Governor Primary Field Is Finalized

Greens Push 2030 Coal Exit in Bid to Shape Brandenburg’s SPD–CDU Coalition

Jenkins Exits Florida Senate Primary, Endorses Alex Vindman After $1.7 Million First-Day Haul

Karl Rove Warns GOP of Cratering Hispanic Support for Trump in Texas

Gallup: Independents Hit Record 45% in 2025 as Younger Voters Shun Party Labels

Trump Endorses Blakeman, Reordering New York’s 2026 GOP Governor Race