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Zohran Mamdani Elected New York City Mayor as Prediction Markets Pay Off

Near-certain odds on prediction platforms spotlight the financialization of U.S. elections.

Overview

  • Unofficial results show Mamdani winning just over half the vote, with Andrew Cuomo around 40%, according to the city’s Board of Elections.
  • He becomes the city’s first Muslim mayor and the youngest.
  • Prediction platforms held near-certain odds for his victory, with Polymarket at 100% and federally regulated Kalshi near 98%, despite late endorsements for Cuomo from President Donald Trump and Elon Musk.
  • Polymarket reported more than $400 million wagered on the race, reflecting growing participation from institutional and crypto-native bettors.
  • A single Polymarket trader staked $1.05 million at roughly 89 cents per share, yielding about $127,000 when the market resolved in Mamdani’s favor.