ZiPS 2026 Projects Giants Around .500, Flags Thin Rotation and Shaky Bullpen
FanGraphs' model spotlights a veteran core, raising questions about pitching depth, internal volatility, the bullpen, plus the club's appetite to add.
Overview
- ZiPS pegs Logan Webb (4.8 fWAR) and Matt Chapman (4.9) as top contributors, with Willy Adames at 4.4, Rafael Devers at 3.4, and Robbie Ray and Landen Roupp at 2.2 each.
- Starting depth looks limited, as projections for Kai-Wei Teng, Hayden Birdsong, Trevor McDonald, and Carson Whisenhunt together approximate only one Roupp or Ray.
- Relief outlook is uninspiring despite a solid Ryan Walker projection, reinforcing concerns that the bullpen is not a clear team strength.
- Team posture reportedly points to limited willingness to spend heavily on rotation help, leaving a significant innings question unresolved.
- Internal variance looms, with Bo Davidson carrying a median ~2 fWAR and an 80th-percentile near 3 wins, while Roupp’s 2-WAR forecast could be optimistic given his injury history.