Overview

• Following a meeting in São Paulo this week, Romeu Zema publicly advised Tarcísio de Freitas to prioritize staying in the governor’s race over entering the presidential contest.
• Zema argued that, if the vote were held today, Tarcísio would have about an 80% chance of winning a second term, compared with far lower odds in a bid against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
• Tarcísio has repeatedly stated he will seek reelection in 2026 and has shown no interest in running for president.
• Zema, who launched his own 2026 presidential pre‑candidacy in August, said right‑leaning contenders expect to rally behind a single option in a potential second round.
• Other governors discussed as possible right‑of‑center presidential contenders include Ratinho Jr. of Paraná and Ronaldo Caiado of Goiás.