Overview

• Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi says state-level data show the economy is on the edge of recession, with jurisdictions representing roughly one-third of U.S. GDP in or at high risk.
• California and New York are described as holding their own, and Zandi says their performance could determine whether a national recession takes hold.
• Job growth has slowed to a virtual standstill, and Zandi says a single month of negative payrolls would be the clearest signal the downturn has begun.
• Housing looks “very troubled,” with single-family sales incentives losing effectiveness and unsold inventories at their highest since before the global financial crisis, raising the risk of a construction-led pullback.
• Zandi expects inflation, now about 2.7%, to move above 3% and approach 4% within a year, attributing much of the pressure to tariffs and restrictive immigration policy.