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Yum China Sets 30,000-Store Goal by 2030, Accelerates Push Into Lower-Tier Cities

New guidance links expansion to explicit margin targets with stepped-up cash returns.

Overview

  • At Investor Day, management mapped a path to double its first 10,000 stores by 2026, exceed 25,000 locations by 2028, and reach about 30,000 by 2030.
  • KFC targets more than 17,000 outlets in China by 2028 with operating profit topping 10 billion yuan, while Pizza Hut plans 600-plus net openings a year to surpass 6,000 stores and enter 1,500 or more untapped cities.
  • The growth plan relies on flexible, lower-capex store formats and a hybrid of company-operated and franchised restaurants to penetrate thousands of lower-tier markets.
  • Financial guidance includes 2025 group restaurant margin of roughly 16.2%–16.3% and operating margin of 10.8%–10.9%, rising by 2028 to at least 16.7% for restaurants and at least 11.5% at the operating level, with annual capex of $600–$700 million.
  • Shareholder returns are set at $1.5 billion annually for 2024–2026, then roughly 100% of free cash flow from 2027, as the company also pilots AI tools such as Q-Smart and plans integrated supply chain parks to drive efficiency and food-safety oversight.