Overview

• Using ADP payroll data from late 2022 to mid‑2025, the team measured a roughly 16% decline in employment for workers ages 22–25 in AI‑impacted jobs.
• Opportunities for more experienced employees in the same fields held steady or grew slightly, and overall wages have not fallen so far.
• The analysis tested for confounders including the Covid shock, shifts to remote work, and recent tech layoffs and still found an AI‑specific effect.
• Impacts are concentrated in areas such as customer support and software development, where junior, repetitive tasks are more easily automated.
• Companies deploying AI to augment staff are hiring more while replacement‑focused adopters are hiring less, and the researchers are building a near‑real‑time AI economic dashboard to track these trends.