Overview
- Friday's New York Times/Siena University poll found a sharp move away from President Trump among voters under 30, with young men now giving Democrats a one-point edge and young women’s Republican support down to about 13 percent.
- The change is not limited to the youngest voters: men aged 30–44 flipped from a 17-point Trump advantage in 2024 to a 6-point Democratic advantage in the new poll.
- Interviews collected with the polling show many former Trump backers cite economic pain—rising fuel and housing costs and stagnant wages—as their main reason for abandoning him.
- Other young voters pointed to cultural and policy grievances, including the handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, foreign policy choices, and perceived treatment of women, as factors shaping their shift.
- Because turnout among the youngest voters was just about 30 percent in the 2022 midterms and polls show a possible Democratic enthusiasm edge plus sampling uncertainties, the shift will only change Congress if those voters actually turn out.