Overview
- An overnight YouGov survey reports Reform UK at 23%, the Greens at 21%, Labour and the Conservatives tied on 16%, and the Liberal Democrats at 14%.
- The results mark the Greens’ highest national score and Labour’s lowest in YouGov’s series, with the Greens leading among voters under 50 and attracting 23% of women.
- YouGov’s breakdown indicates 31% of 2024 Labour voters now back the Greens, 43% remain with Labour, and 28% of 2024 Conservatives would switch to Reform while 62% would stay Tory.
- Election Maps UK’s Nowcast, a simulation based on current polling, projects 227 seats for Reform, 135 for the Greens, 92 for the Liberal Democrats, 59 for the Conservatives, and 40 for Labour.
- The model also indicates Left‑leaning parties together could reach 335 seats, as figures including Robert Jenrick warn about the prospect of a Left‑wing coalition.