Overview
- Voting intention shows Reform on 27%, Labour 20%, Conservatives and Greens 16%, and Liberal Democrats 15%.
- Some 57% of Liberal Democrat voters and 46% of Green voters say they would back Labour where Reform is poised to win, with 34% of Labour voters, 39% of Lib Dems and 19% of Greens prepared to back the Conservatives to block Reform.
- YouGov’s modelling indicates Labour–Reform battlegrounds tighten to about a two-point gap once tactical choices are factored in, while Conservatives hold a one-point edge over Reform in their head-to-head seats and Labour registers about 6% there.
- YouGov’s Anthony Wells describes two voter blocs willing to coalesce around the best-placed local contender, a dynamic that slightly disadvantages Reform because the left-leaning bloc is marginally larger.
- Attitudinal findings show 49% of voters view Reform as racist and 60% doubt Nigel Farage’s suitability for prime minister, and Reform strategists worry next year’s Welsh and Scottish elections could see tactical patterns similar to the Caerphilly by-election.