Overview
- The survey of 1,220 adults conducted January 5–12 shows Plaid Cymru at 37%, Reform UK 23%, Greens 13%, Labour 10%, Conservatives 10% and Liberal Democrats 5%.
- Seat-mapping to the 96-member Senedd projects Plaid around 45 seats, Reform 23, Greens 11, Labour 8, Conservatives 6 and Lib Dems 3, with some models indicating First Minister Eluned Morgan could fail to be re-elected.
- Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth outlined plans to cut NHS waiting lists, shift toward preventative care and bolster social care, and he backed a commission to explore constitutional options including independence pathways.
- Reactions split along party lines, with Plaid and the Greens describing momentum, Labour acknowledging a bad poll, and Conservatives warning about nationalist goals.
- Experts cautioned that this is a single poll and that seat projections under the new electoral system are indicative rather than definitive.