Overview

• YouGov’s June MRP poll projects Reform UK at 271 seats, eclipsing Labour’s 178 and the Conservatives’ 46 in a hypothetical general election
• The survey finds a hung parliament almost certain, with 97% of simulations showing no party achieving the 326-seat majority
• Minor parties would make notable gains under the model, with Liberal Democrats at 81 seats, the SNP at 38 and both Greens and Plaid Cymru securing seven each
• A separate BMG poll shows Reform’s lead narrowed to three points over Labour, with 30% versus 27% support in voter intentions
• Reform UK’s strongest performances are in former Brexit strongholds such as the East Midlands and North East, where many contests are decided by slim margins