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YouGov Poll Predicts Reform UK as Largest Party in a Hung Parliament

Mass support for Reform UK reflects widespread voter frustration with mainstream parties.

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LONDON, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 28: Leader of Reform UK, Nigel Farage (C), Chairman of Reform UK Zia Yusuf (R) and new Reform UK party member and former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns (L) seen while attending a Reform UK press conference on November 28, 2024 in London, England. The populist Reform UK party called a press conference to make a statement on party growth and professionalization. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)
DURHAM, ENGLAND - MAY 02: Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage is seen celebrating with supporters after Reform UK took control of Durham County Council after winning more than half of the seats on May 02, 2025 in Durham, England. The Reform Party won the Runcorn by-election by a slim margin of six votes, taking the safe seat from Labour. They are picking up council seats across England from the Conservatives and Labour, and have installed a new Mayor in Greater Lincolnshire in last night's local elections. (Photo by Ian Forsyth/Getty Images)
PADDOCK WOOD, ENGLAND - MAY 02: Leader of Reform UK Nigel Farage addresses supporters and the media as Reform UK celebrate historic local election victories on May 02, 2025 in Paddock Wood, England. The Reform Party won the Runcorn by-election by a slim margin of six votes, taking the safe seat from Labour. They are picking up council seats across England from the Conservatives and Labour, and have installed a new Mayor in Greater Lincolnshire in last night's local elections. (Photo by Lia Toby/Getty Images)

Overview

  • YouGov’s June MRP poll projects Reform UK at 271 seats, eclipsing Labour’s 178 and the Conservatives’ 46 in a hypothetical general election
  • The survey finds a hung parliament almost certain, with 97% of simulations showing no party achieving the 326-seat majority
  • Minor parties would make notable gains under the model, with Liberal Democrats at 81 seats, the SNP at 38 and both Greens and Plaid Cymru securing seven each
  • A separate BMG poll shows Reform’s lead narrowed to three points over Labour, with 30% versus 27% support in voter intentions
  • Reform UK’s strongest performances are in former Brexit strongholds such as the East Midlands and North East, where many contests are decided by slim margins