Overview

• The YouGov seat-by-seat model projects Reform UK on 311 MPs, with Labour on 144, Conservatives on 45, Liberal Democrats on 78, SNP on 37, Greens on seven and Plaid Cymru on six.
• Despite falling short of 326, the analysis indicates a Reform bloc of this size would likely deliver the most MPs to back a prime minister once the Speaker and Sinn Féin are excluded.
• The projection draws on roughly 11,000–13,000 interviews and carries a wide range, estimating Reform at about 271 to 342 seats.
• Three-quarters of Reform’s gains are from Labour, with the party strongest in the North East, East Midlands and Wales, and weaker in London and Scotland.
• Polling by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK suggests anti‑Reform tactical voting could remove up to 60 of those projected seats, boosting Labour and, in some contests, Conservatives.