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47m ago

YouGov MRP Projects Reform UK as Largest Party With 311 Seats

The model points to concentrated Labour losses in its own seats that magnify Reform’s advantage.

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Nigel Farage’s party is on track to have 311 MPs at the next election, according to the seat-by-seat poll conducted by YouGov

Overview

  • YouGov’s constituency-level MRP puts Reform on 311 seats with 27% of the vote, six points ahead of Labour.
  • Labour is projected to fall to about 144 MPs, with the Conservatives on 45, the Liberal Democrats on 78 and the SNP on 37.
  • The poll indicates 231 Labour-held constituencies would switch to Reform, with additional Labour losses to the SNP and smaller parties.
  • Regional estimates show strong Reform gains in the Northeast, Northwest, East of England and Wales, leaving Labour on nine seats in Scotland and three in Wales.
  • Drawn from a survey of more than 11,000 people using MRP, the findings place Nigel Farage in pole position in a hung parliament scenario, though the results remain projections rather than certainties.