Overview
- YouGov’s large-scale MRP, published Thursday, projects Labour would win 241 seats, the Conservatives 130 and Reform UK 123 if a general election were held today.
- Reform’s slump follows months of controversy over two record donations and an undercover Channel 4 report that prompted a police investigation into the party’s finances.
- The MRP shows more than a third of constituencies decided by margins under five points, making Reform especially vulnerable to tactical ‘stop Reform’ voting in many marginals.
- Several high-profile Reform defectors, including Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman, are forecast to lose their seats in the model, underlining the party’s weakened local standing.
- A separate YouGov scenario for Best for Britain finds a Labour pledge to rejoin the EU would boost Labour toward about 321 seats, illustrating how a single policy shift could reshape coalition math and blunt Reform’s challenge.