Overview

• Projected seats: Reform 311, Labour 144, Liberal Democrats 78, Conservatives 45, SNP 37, Greens 7 and Plaid Cymru 6, according to YouGov’s latest MRP.
• YouGov’s constituency model indicates national vote shares of 27% for Reform, 21% for Labour, 17% for the Conservatives, 15% for the Liberal Democrats and 11% for the Greens.
• YouGov cautions that Reform’s tally carries a wide range, with outcomes between roughly 271 and 342 seats, implying anything from a reduced plurality to an outright majority.
• The model shows Reform’s strength concentrated in the North East, the East Midlands and parts of Wales, with far weaker returns in London and Scotland.
• Separate research by Electoral Calculus/FindoutnowUK suggests anti‑Reform tactical voting could significantly cut Farage’s seat haul, potentially costing around 60 seats and lifting Labour and Conservative totals.