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2h ago

YouGov Megapoll Puts Reform UK on 311 Seats, Leaving Farage Best Placed to Form Government

A large-sample YouGov MRP model points to a hung parliament with Reform largest, with wide uncertainty in seat counts.

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Overview

  • The projection puts Reform at 311 seats, Labour at 144, Conservatives at 45, Liberal Democrats at 78, SNP at 37, Greens at 7 and Plaid Cymru at 6.
  • YouGov estimates national vote shares of 27% for Reform, 21% for Labour, 17% for the Conservatives, 15% for the Liberal Democrats and 11% for the Greens.
  • The MRP model is based on roughly 11,000–13,000 respondents, with Reform’s central 311-seat figure ranging from 271 to 342 and 82 contests decided by under five points.
  • Accounting for the Speaker and Sinn Féin abstention, the arithmetic would leave Nigel Farage best placed to assemble the largest bloc of MPs and enter No 10.
  • Constituency forecasts indicate losses for high-profile Labour and Conservative figures and intensify scrutiny of Keir Starmer’s leadership ahead of Labour’s conference.