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2h ago

YouGov Megapoll Puts Reform UK on 311 Seats, Farage Poised to Lead Hung Parliament

YouGov’s large-sample MRP projects a dramatic realignment that is a volatile snapshot years before the next election.

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Overview

  • The seat-by-seat projection shows Reform UK on 311 MPs, Labour on 144, Conservatives on 45, Liberal Democrats on 78, SNP on 37, Greens on seven and Plaid Cymru on six.
  • Estimated national vote shares are Reform 27%, Labour 21%, Conservatives 17%, Liberal Democrats 15%, Greens 11%, SNP 3% and Plaid 1%, based on about 11,000–13,000 respondents.
  • At 311 seats Reform would be the largest party and, with the Speaker and Sinn Fein not voting, would be best placed to form a government even without an outright majority.
  • Labour’s projected collapse to its lowest seat tally since 1931 has intensified pressure on Keir Starmer, with Andy Burnham saying MPs have privately asked him about a leadership challenge.
  • YouGov cautions the model has wide ranges, with Reform’s seats roughly 271–342 and many contests decided by small margins, underscoring high uncertainty this far from polling day.