Overview

• Central projection models a hung parliament with Reform UK on 311 seats, 15 short of a majority, making Nigel Farage best placed to form a government if an election were held now.
• Labour is forecast to fall to about 144 MPs from 411 in 2024, the Conservatives to 45, with the Liberal Democrats on 78, the SNP on 37, the Greens on seven and Plaid Cymru on six.
• YouGov estimates national vote shares at roughly Reform 27%, Labour 21%, Conservatives 17%, Liberal Democrats 15% and Greens 11%.
• YouGov cautions that results are volatile, noting Reform’s tally could range from about 271 to 342 seats and that 82 projected Reform wins are by margins under five points.
• Keir Starmer escalated his response ahead of Labour’s conference, labeling Reform “an enemy” and urging his party to unite against the threat; recent local by-elections showed Reform advances without outright wins.