Overview

• Interest-rate swaps now price roughly a 19%–22% chance of action at the Oct. 30 BOJ meeting, down from about 57% before the ruling party leadership result.
• Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus stance and past criticism of rate hikes led investors to bet on a slower tightening path, pushing the yen down and lifting Japanese shares while bonds fell.
• Ex-BOJ economist Seisaku Kameda told Reuters the wage outlook is the decisive factor and said the central bank likely would have held this month regardless, with a hike more plausible in December or January.
• Kameda noted data such as the tankan show U.S. tariffs weighing on exports and profits but not yet curbing capital expenditure, leaving the wage–price feedback uncertain.
• FX strategists say the yen-funded carry trade could re-emerge given cheaper funding expectations, with some warning of further yen weakness, and markets now look to BOJ speeches and fresh projections at the Oct. 29–30 meeting.