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Year-End Shake-Up in Spain: PSOE Faces Supreme Trial as PP Wields Senate Power and Vox Gains Upend Talks

A convergence of high-profile investigations and the opposition’s upper-house control is shifting leverage ahead of 2026 and complicating post-election bargaining in Extremadura.

Overview

  • Spain’s Supreme Court is set to hold the first trial in the ‘Koldo case’ in the coming months, with José Luis Ábalos, Koldo García and Víctor de Aldama among the defendants.
  • The Guardia Civil’s UCO detained Leire Díez and others on December 10 in a probe into an alleged network that steered SEPI-linked contracts worth about €132.9 million, with the case under secrecy at the Audiencia Nacional.
  • Using its absolute Senate majority, the PP drove roughly 100 investigative appearances, multiple ministerial reprobations and a string of institutional conflicts with the Government and Congress throughout 2025.
  • After Extremadura’s vote, where PP and Vox together surpassed 60% and Vox doubled its share to about 17% and 11 seats, negotiations are strained as María Guardiola resists Vox’s demands to enter the regional government.
  • In Galicia, the Ferrol investigating court closed the Villares case without issuing an indictment, a decision now awaiting possible confirmation by the Provincial Court in the new year.