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Year-End Consumer Mood Diverges: UK, U.S. Tick Up as Germany Slides

Easing inflation offers only limited support, leaving consumers focused on saving.

Overview

  • UK GfK consumer confidence rose two points to -17 in December, with all components higher and the major-purchase index improving to -11, yet spending remains subdued.
  • The University of Michigan’s final December sentiment edged up to 52.9, still nearly 30% below a year earlier, indicating only modest improvement in overall views.
  • UMich’s current conditions gauge slipped to 50.4, a new series low, and buying conditions for big-ticket goods deteriorated to the weakest on record.
  • U.S. one-year inflation expectations fell for a fourth straight month to 4.2%, the lowest in 11 months, even as assessments of present conditions worsened.
  • Germany’s GfK/NIM index is projected to drop to -26.9 in January, with saving propensity at its highest since June 2008 amid inflation worries and pension-policy uncertainty.