Overview

• Analysis of federal data through July 2025 finds occupational changes within historical norms, with highly AI‑exposed fields not showing broad displacement.
• Early strain appears concentrated among recent graduates and entry‑level roles, though researchers note the patterns also fit a cooling labor market.
• Enterprise adoption remains uneven as many pilots lack clear returns, including an MIT finding that 95% of generative‑AI pilots are not generating revenue.
• Other research points to sharper declines for young workers in AI‑exposed occupations, including Stanford/ADP analyses, highlighting conflicting signals.
• Some firms have cited AI in layoffs and surveys show intentions to replace roles by 2026, but the authors stress major data gaps and will issue monthly updates as usage expands.