Overview

• Analysis of BLS data on job losses, unemployment spells, and occupational composition shows no discernible economy-wide impact since ChatGPT’s 2022 debut.
• Authors note early strains may be concentrated in recent graduates and entry-level roles, though patterns also align with a cooling labor market.
• Evidence remains mixed, with a Stanford payroll study reporting sharper declines in AI-exposed entry-level jobs than in less-exposed roles.
• Companies continue heavy AI spending and training—such as Walmart’s planned near-$1 billion upskilling push and Bank of America’s $4 billion tech outlay—even as adoption and workflow redesign stay uneven.
• Public concern and some AI-cited layoffs persist—examples include Dropbox and Duolingo—but the report characterizes economy-wide job-loss fears as speculative for now.