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Yale–Brookings Study Finds Little Evidence Generative AI Has Reshaped U.S. Employment

Researchers report overall stability, with separate data pointing to pressure on entry-level hiring.

Overview

  • The Yale University Budget Lab and Brookings Institution analysis finds no economy‑wide job disruption since ChatGPT’s 2022 debut, citing stable shares of workers in high-, medium-, and low‑AI‑exposure roles.
  • The study detects no pattern of rising AI exposure among unemployed workers, reinforcing its conclusion of limited near‑term displacement.
  • Stanford research referenced in the coverage reports roughly a 13% drop in employment for 22‑ to 25‑year‑olds in the most AI‑exposed occupations.
  • Corporate signals remain mixed, with Salesforce’s Marc Benioff saying AI enabled cuts to thousands of customer support jobs and Anthropic’s CEO forecasting steep losses in entry‑level white‑collar roles.
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says AI may be having some effects yet is not the main driver of current employment trends, as longer‑term Labor Department projections still show declines ahead in roles such as cashiers, office clerks, and customer service representatives.