Overview
- Newsom leads a hypothetical Democratic primary at 25%, ahead of Kamala Harris at 18%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 16%, and Pete Buttigieg at 14%.
- Democratic voters rate Newsom the strongest general-election option, with 85% saying he is most likely to beat a generic Republican opponent.
- Among Republicans, J.D. Vance draws 51% in a Trump-free primary, but a scenario imagining an unconstitutional third Trump term shows Trump at 50% and Vance at 19%.
- Voters aged 18–34 disapprove of President Donald Trump by margins exceeding 30 points, and Democrats hold double-digit generic-ballot leads across every under-35 segment.
- Younger Republicans are less enthusiastic about Trump, with the poll finding he does not secure majority support among GOP voters under 30.