Overview

• Yale’s Budget Lab, working with Brookings, reports no discernible economy-wide disruption in the U.S. jobs mix since ChatGPT’s 2022 release.
• The analysis finds no acceleration in occupational churn compared with pre‑ChatGPT trends, with recent changes remaining within historical norms.
• Researchers flag a recent split between outcomes for new graduates and older young workers, which could signal concentrated early‑career effects or a cooling job market.
• The team will monitor labor indicators monthly, emphasizing that transformative impacts from new technologies typically appear over longer adoption cycles.
• Evidence is heterogeneous, with firms such as Dropbox and Duolingo citing AI in layoffs and a Stanford study finding weaker entry‑level hiring in AI‑exposed roles, while MIT reports most AI pilots are not yet delivering returns.