Yale Poll Finds Buttigieg at 4% With Black Voters, Drawing Duke 2016 Comparisons

The comparison involves a national hypothetical primary poll versus a 2016 Louisiana Senate survey of likely voters.

Overview

The Fall 2025 Yale Youth Poll of 3,426 registered voters reports Buttigieg at 4% among Black Democrats in a hypothetical 2028 primary, with a ±1.7-point margin of error for the full sample.
Buttigieg registers 17% among white Democrats and draws his strongest backing from those 65 and older at 18%.
Kamala Harris leads among Black Democrats at 47%, followed by Gavin Newsom at 12% and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 9%.
Media coverage highlighted a 2016 University of New Orleans poll showing David Duke at about 14% support among Black respondents and roughly 16% favorability in a Louisiana Senate race.
The two measures are not equivalent because the UNO poll surveyed Louisiana likely voters for a state primary, whereas the Yale poll is a national snapshot of a hypothetical Democratic contest.