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XRP Reclaims $3 as Odds of U.S. Spot ETF Approval Top 90%

Traders price high approval odds into October SEC decisions.

Overview

  • XRP briefly touched about $3.04 before pullbacks and has returned to the $3 zone on rising institutional activity and volatile intraday swings.
  • Bloomberg and other analysts put approval odds for a U.S. spot XRP ETF at roughly 90–95%, with multiple applications facing SEC deadlines in October.
  • Derivatives positioning has intensified, with futures demand up 5% to 2.69 billion XRP and CME outstanding contracts up 74%, while options skew remains call‑heavy into the Sept. 12 expiry.
  • Whale accumulation has reportedly reached roughly $600 million in recent weeks, yet exchange custody balances at 12‑month highs signal potential near‑term selling pressure.
  • Ripple expanded its partnership with BBVA for MiCA‑compliant digital asset custody in Spain, and analysts project $4–$8 billion in first‑year inflows if a spot ETF is approved.