Overview

• Bloomberg and prediction markets place roughly 94%–95% odds on at least one U.S. spot XRP ETF approval in October.
• More than seven spot filings face a clustered SEC decision window from October 18 to 25, according to Oliver Michel.
• Derivatives and funds show interest building, with CME XRP futures open interest reaching $1 billion and futures-based XRP products topping $800 million in assets.
• Year-to-date institutional inflows total about $1.25 billion, compared with JPMorgan’s estimate of $4 billion to $8 billion in potential post-approval ETF inflows.
• Views diverge on price impact as Yahoo Finance cautions that ETF news may be priced in and Bitcoin’s direction remains pivotal, while other analysts cite possible Fed rate cuts and technical consolidation near resistance as supports for a breakout.