Overview

• Prediction markets now price an XRP ETF approval near 87% as the SEC approaches mid‑to‑late October decision dates on multiple spot applications following late‑August amended S‑1s from major issuers.
• XRP defended the $2.70 support and rebounded to roughly $2.80–$2.83, with technicians watching for a push above $2.90–$3.00 that could set up targets near $3.8–$4.0.
• On‑chain metrics show whales bought about 340 million XRP in two weeks, exchange balances fell by roughly $268 million, and 2,743 wallets now hold at least 1 million XRP totaling about 47.32 billion coins.
• Analysts project substantial demand if funds launch, including estimates of more than $5 billion of first‑month inflows and up to $8 billion over the first year.
• Institutional signals include Tokyo‑listed Gumi’s plan to acquire about $17 million in XRP for its treasury through February 2026, alongside a new filing for an XRP‑linked option‑income ETF.