Overview
- The World Trade Organization raised its 2026 forecast to 3.9% growth and its 2027 forecast to 4.1% after reassessing trade data.
- Independent analysis from DHL and NYU Stern found global merchandise trade grew at its fastest rate in years in H1 2026, driven largely by AI-infrastructure goods.
- WTO calculations show trade in AI-related goods surged about 67% in the first half of 2026 and accounted for nearly half of merchandise-trade growth.
- Regional shocks such as the Strait of Hormuz blockade sharply cut some oil and LNG exports but global supplies shifted to other sellers and trade rules helped limit wider disruption.
- A concentrated set of East and Southeast Asian suppliers, notably Taiwan, Malaysia and South Korea, are capturing outsized export gains and the persistence of this trend will hinge on continued AI investment and geopolitical stability.