Overview

• The World Trade Report models a 34–37% increase in global trade and a roughly 12–13% rise in global GDP by 2040 under plausible AI adoption scenarios.
• WTO economists highlight cost reductions in logistics, regulatory compliance, communications and translation as key channels expanding market access, especially for smaller firms.
• Digitally deliverable services are projected to post the fastest growth, with trade in those services rising about 42% as AI use expands.
• The report warns that benefits could skew to richer economies without targeted investments, noting potential income gains of only 8% in lower-income economies versus 14% in higher-income ones if the digital divide persists.
• Policy priorities include predictable trade rules, lower tariffs on AI-enabling inputs such as semiconductors, stronger digital infrastructure and skills, and support measures that could help low-income countries lift exports by up to 11%.