Overview

• The WTO says merchandise trade will expand 2.4% in 2025 after a stronger first half, with growth slowing to 0.5% in 2026 as the full impact of US tariffs lands.
• Import frontloading by American buyers and favorable macro conditions, including disinflation and fiscal support, helped lift volumes in early 2025.
• AI-linked goods such as semiconductors, servers, and telecom equipment jumped about 20% in value year over year, contributing nearly half of the first‑half merchandise trade expansion.
• Regional patterns diverge: North American trade flows are projected to fall 3.1% in 2025 and 1% in 2026, Asia provides the largest positive contribution this year, and South–South trade rose roughly 8% in value in the first half (about 9% excluding China).
• Director‑General Ngozi Okonjo‑Iweala called the 2026 outlook bleak and the WTO flagged risks from rising protectionism, inventory drawdowns, and potential price pressures, while services trade growth is seen easing to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.