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2h ago

WTO Lifts 2025 Trade Outlook to 2.4% as AI Boom and U.S. Front‑Loading Boost Volumes, Cuts 2026 to 0.5%

AI hardware demand alongside pre‑tariff U.S. buying gave a boost the WTO sees as temporary.

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Der weltweite Handel erweist sich in diesem Jahr nach Einschätzung der Welthandelsorganisation (WTO) als robuster als bislang angenommen. Die Aussichten für das kommende Jahr sind demnach aber nun deutlich düsterer.
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Overview

  • Global merchandise trade volumes rose about 4.9% year over year in the first half of 2025, prompting the upgraded 2025 forecast.
  • The WTO attributes the surge to strong demand for semiconductors, servers and telecoms equipment as well as U.S. import front‑loading ahead of tariff hikes ordered by President Donald Trump.
  • The sharper 2026 downgrade reflects expectations that pulled‑forward purchases will unwind, leaving projected trade growth at just 0.5%.
  • Regional revisions include North American exports now seen at -3.1% for 2025, Europe at 0.7%, and U.S. import growth at -4.9%.
  • Director‑General Ngozi Okonjo‑Iweala called U.S. tariff policy one of the biggest trade disruptions in decades, while noting roughly three‑quarters of trade still follows negotiated rules, and the WTO now pegs global GDP growth at 2.7% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026.