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WTO Lifts 2025 Trade Outlook to 2.4% and Cuts 2026 to 0.5% on Tariff Delays

WTO economists say front‑loaded U.S. demand will fade as inventories unwind, shifting more of the tariff hit into next year.

A logo is seen at the World Trade Organization (WTO) headquarters before a news conference in Geneva, Switzerland, October 5, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse
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The WTO said AI-related goods, including semiconductors (pictured), drove nearly half of the overall trade expansion in the first six months of 2025

Overview

  • After stronger‑than‑expected momentum in early 2025, the WTO raised its global merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4% for this year and lowered next year to 0.5%, citing delayed impacts from U.S. tariffs.
  • World merchandise trade volume grew 4.9% year on year in the first half, supported by importers pulling shipments forward and favorable macro conditions in major economies.
  • AI‑related goods such as semiconductors, servers and telecom equipment accounted for roughly 42% of first‑half trade growth, with values up about 20% from a year earlier.
  • Front‑loading into the U.S. drove a surge in North American imports — reported at a 13.2% annual pace — and left U.S. inventories at record dollar levels, which the WTO says will weigh as stockpiles are drawn down.
  • The tariff backdrop includes a U.S. baseline 10% duty introduced in April with higher rates announced for some partners in August, and the WTO projects weaker import performance across all regions in 2026 as services export growth slows to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.