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44m ago

WTO Lifts 2025 Trade Outlook, Slashes 2026 on Expected U.S. Tariff Drag

The trade body links the weaker 2026 projection to the full-year impact of U.S. tariffs.

A logo is seen at the World Trade Organization (WTO) headquarters before a news conference in Geneva, Switzerland, October 5, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse
The WTO said AI-related goods, including semiconductors (pictured), drove nearly half of the overall trade expansion in the first six months of 2025
The WTO headquarters is next to Lake Geneva
Image

Overview

  • The WTO now sees global merchandise trade up 2.4% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, shifting from August estimates of 0.9% and 1.8%, respectively.
  • Stronger 2025 trade reflects front-loaded U.S. imports ahead of tariff hikes and a surge in AI-related goods that accounted for roughly half of first-half growth.
  • WTO data show Asia contributed nearly two-thirds of the expansion in AI-related trade in the first half of 2025, with the United States responsible for about one-fifth.
  • Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned that the 2026 outlook is concerning while saying the rules-based system helped steady trade this year.
  • Economists highlighted the spread of trade-restrictive measures and policy uncertainty as key risks, and they expect services export growth to slow to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.