Overview

• The WTO cut its 2026 merchandise trade volume growth forecast to 0.5%, down from 1.8% estimated in August, saying the full tariff impact will land next year.
• For 2025, the forecast was raised to 2.4% after robust first‑half gains (+5.5% in Q1 and +4.3% in Q2) fueled by U.S. pre‑importing and stronger trade in AI‑related goods.
• The WTO said the combined 2025–26 increase totals 2.9%, only slightly above the prior 2.3%, indicating a timing shift rather than a stronger overall trajectory.
• Regional projections show North American imports falling 4.9% in 2025 and 5.8% in 2026, with Asia providing the largest positive contribution to growth this year.
• Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned that prospects for 2026 are darker and noted that multilateral trade rules are offering some stability.