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3w ago

World’s Nuclear Powers Accelerate Arsenal Upgrades with New START Expiry Looming

China’s addition of 100 warheads this year signals shifting power balances as emerging technologies raise the prospect of rapid escalation under vanishing arms-control limits

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Overview

  • The nine nuclear-armed states hold 12,241 warheads, with 9,614 earmarked for military use and 3,912 deployed on delivery systems under U.S. and Russian control.
  • The United States and Russia each maintain over 5,000 warheads and are investing in new intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched weapons and air-launched systems.
  • China expanded its arsenal from 500 to at least 600 warheads in a year and has constructed about 350 new silos for intercontinental missiles.
  • Global military spending jumped 9.4% to $2.7 trillion in 2024 while the number of wars fell from 51 to 49 but fatalities rose from 188,000 to 239,000.
  • The 2010 New START treaty will expire in February 2026 with no renewal in sight, and advances in AI, cyber capabilities and Russia’s broadened nuclear doctrine are lowering the threshold for use.