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World’s 1.5°C Carbon Budget Set to Run Out in Three Years

Rising greenhouse gas emissions have narrowed the window for action to prevent more severe climate impacts

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Firefighters during the Thompson fire in Oroville, California, 2024. Credit: UPI / Alamy Stock Photo.
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Overview

  • The remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C is about 130 billion tonnes of CO₂ from the start of 2025 and will be exhausted by early 2028 at current emission levels.
  • Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record 53.6 billion tonnes in 2024, driving average surface temperatures to 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in a single year.
  • Between 2019 and 2024, global mean sea level rose approximately 26 mm—more than doubling the long-term rate since 1900—and heightening coastal flood and erosion risks.
  • Earth’s energy imbalance has grown by 25% over the past two decades as reduced aerosol pollution and unchecked emissions have increased the amount of heat trapped in the system.
  • Over 250 scientists have written to COP30 leaders in Bonn urging a rapid, equitable phaseout of fossil fuels as the essential step to meet Paris Agreement goals.