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World Bank Slashes 2025 Growth Forecast as Trade Barriers Mount

World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill warns that escalating tariffs under President Trump’s trade agenda risk undermining living standards

Containers at the Port of Ningbo-Zhoushan in China's eastern Zhejiang Province in May.
Image
An American flag flutters over a ship and shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro California, U.S., May 13, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake
The World Bank logo is seen at the 2023 Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund in Washington, U.S., April 13, 2023. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo

Overview

  • The bank now expects global expansion to slow to 2.3% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024
  • U.S. growth is projected at just 1.4% this year, half its 2.8% pace in 2024
  • Economists cite a substantial rise in tariffs and other trade barriers linked to President Trump’s trade policies as the main drag
  • The latest Global Economic Prospects report trims the world forecast by 0.4 percentage points and the U.S. outlook by 0.9 points since January
  • Gill warns that without a successful soft landing, the current economic turbulence could deeply erode living standards