Overview
- The Bank projects global commodity prices to fall 7% in both 2025 and 2026, reaching their lowest level in six years.
- Energy prices are forecast to drop 12% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, with Brent averaging $68 in 2025 and $60 in 2026 as a large oil surplus builds.
- Fertilizer prices are expected to jump 21% in 2025 before easing in 2026, pressuring farm margins even as crop prices retreat.
- A likely La Niña late 2025 or early 2026 could bring hotter, drier conditions to Argentina and dent maize, wheat, and soybean yields.
- With agriculture near 70% of export earnings, Argentina faces weaker export receipts even as cheaper energy helps cool inflation, prompting the World Bank’s call for fiscal resilience and investment.