Overview

• India’s FY26 growth forecast rises to 6.5% from 6.3%, keeping it the fastest‑growing major economy, according to the South Asia Development Update.
• The FY27 projection is cut to 6.3% as the US imposes 50% duties on roughly three‑quarters of India’s goods exports, with an effective tariff burden near 52% hitting textiles, gems and jewellery, and shrimp.
• South Asia’s expansion is seen at 6.6% in 2025, then slowing to 5.8% in 2026, reflecting weaker Indian exports and varied pressures across Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and the Maldives.
• The World Bank cites strong private consumption, improved farm output and rising rural wages, with recent GST reforms reducing rate slabs and easing compliance after September 22; Q1 FY26 growth printed 7.8%.
• The report flags AI as both opportunity and risk, estimating about 22% of regional jobs are exposed and noting a roughly 20% drop in listings for highly exposed roles, while urging tariff reductions, worker mobility, upskilling, and infrastructure upgrades.