Overview

• The Bank raised its China forecast from 4.0% in April to 4.8% for 2025, citing stronger near‑term support from policy measures and exports.
• Growth is projected to ease to 4.2% in 2026 as export momentum weakens and fiscal support is likely reduced to manage rising public debt.
• U.S.–China trade frictions continue to cloud the outlook, with average U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods at 57.6% and a temporary truce running to mid‑November.
• Domestic headwinds persist, with August retail sales up 3.4% year on year, real estate investment down 12.9% in the first eight months, and about one in seven young people unemployed.
• The upgrade also lifts the East Asia and Pacific outlook, and the World Bank urges prioritizing structural reforms over short‑term fiscal boosts for more durable gains.