Overview
- Nvidia faces a newly announced 25% U.S. tariff on some advanced semiconductors that Wolfe Research says could weigh on H200 shipments to China.
- Wolfe reiterated an Outperform rating with a $250 price target and named Nvidia its favorite AI idea for 2026 by adding the shares to the Wolfe Alpha List.
- The firm reports Blackwell is fully ramping and Rubin remains on schedule for a second‑half 2026 ramp, with Rubin expected to deliver a 5x inference gain versus Blackwell.
- Nvidia has indicated China shipments could total $2 billion to $5 billion per quarter if exports are approved, and Wolfe suggests the tariff could translate into fee‑based allowances as part of broader trade negotiations.
- Recent results and outlook stay strong, with Q3 revenue at $57 billion and guidance for roughly $65 billion in Q4, as cloud providers prepare to deploy Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform, including Microsoft’s next‑generation data centers.