Overview

• The WMO assigns a roughly 70 percent chance that one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024’s record global average temperature of 1.55 °C above pre-industrial levels.
• There is an 86 percent probability that at least one of the next five years will exceed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and a small first-time risk of breaching 2 °C.
• The Arctic is projected to warm over three times faster than the global average, accelerating ice melt and permafrost thaw.
• Forecasts indicate above-average rainfall in Northern Europe and South Asia alongside increased drying trends in the Amazon basin.
• Limiting warming to 1.5 °C will require cutting greenhouse gas emissions by at least 43 percent by 2030, intensifying pressure on COP30’s revised national climate plans.