Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization says an exceptionally strong El Niño is developing and is likely to reach its peak by the end of 2026 and persist into early 2027.
- Scientists cite very large ocean heat anomalies as the cause, with sea-surface temperatures about 2.2–2.6°C above average and pockets of subsurface warmth exceeding 8°C above normal.
- UN Secretary-General António Guterres and WMO chief Celeste Saulo warned that the event will raise the odds of floods, droughts and extreme heat and urged governments and disaster agencies to prepare.
- Humanitarian signals are already visible as Honduras, Panama and El Salvador issued drought alerts and the World Food Programme warned Central America faces heightened hunger risks.
- Forecast models show above-average land temperatures for September–November 2026, and the WMO plans to work with UN and relief partners to provide climate information for emergency planning and sector responses.