Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization issued an update on Thursday, September 3, 2026, saying El Niño will strengthen to a very strong, near‑record level and is likely to persist into February 2027.
- WMO data show sea surface anomalies of about 2.2–2.6°C above average and subsurface hotspots exceeding 8°C, signals that models link to continued rapid intensification.
- The pattern shifts large‑scale rainfall and temperature systems, raising the probability of droughts in places like Australia and southern Africa and heavier rains or floods in parts of South America, the Horn of Africa and the southern United States.
- Governments and UN agencies have ramped up early warnings and readiness after late‑August drought reports from Central American countries and disruptions to shipping in Panama because of low water levels.
- Scientists warn El Niño will amplify the warmed baseline climate, increasing the chance of near‑record global temperatures in 2026–2027 and creating heightened risks to crops, water supplies, health systems and energy networks unless preparedness is scaled up.