Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization said Thursday that seasonal forecasts project Pacific sea‑surface temperature anomalies as high as +3.8°C between November 2026 and January 2027, with a likely peak around December.
- Independent centres including the International Research Institute reported similarly extreme readings, with recent Niño 3.4 weekly averages near +3.3°C and model ensembles clustering around +3.5°C.
- UN humanitarian officials have allocated more than US$50 million from emergency reserves to help 11 highly exposed countries and warned that roughly tens of millions of people could face increased food insecurity.
- Officials stressed that anomaly size does not automatically determine local outcomes and urged governments to use forecasts, early‑warning systems and contingency planning to reduce droughts, floods and heat impacts.
- Past strong El Niño events show how ocean warming shifts global rain and wind patterns so observers say the coming months will be watched closely for regional droughts, heavy rains and cascading effects on crops, water and livelihoods.